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The Economic Optimism Index
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EOI 2006
Release Date Schedule
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Final Certified Results Reveal TIPP as the Most Accurate Pollster of
Election 2004
An analysis of the presidential election's final
certified results shows that TIPP's daily tracking polls proved to be
the most accurate in terms of predicting the winner and his margin of
victory.
- Among the four national daily tracking polls,
TIPP came closest to projecting Bush's actual margin of victory (2.1%
projected vs. 2.5% actual).
- TIPP also outperformed a field of 11 other national,
non-tracking pre-election polls, coming within just four-tenths of
a percentage point to predicting Bush’s actual margin of victory
(2.1% projected vs. 2.5% actual).
- TIPP predicted the winner of the election in several
pre-election venues, including CNBC’s Kudlow and Cramer and
in the pages of Investor’s Business Daily.
"We developed strong tracking metrics and voter
models that allowed us to accurately predict the election's outcome,”
said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP. "These metrics enabled us
to minimize error and capture trends as they developed. We had our finger
on the pulse of America throughout all of its palpitations."
The Pollsters' Poll Positions
| |
Candidates |
Margin |
Absolute
Difference |
|
Bush |
Kerry |
Bush |
Kerry |
| Actual |
50.7% |
48.3% |
2.5% |
- |
- |
|
Tracking Polls |
| TIPP |
50.1% |
48.0% |
2.1% |
- |
0.4% |
| Rasmussen |
50.2% |
48.5% |
1.7% |
- |
0.8% |
| ABC News |
49.0% |
|
1.0% |
- |
1.5% |
| Zogby Int. |
49.4% |
49.1% |
0.3% |
- |
2.2% |
|
Other Polls |
| Pew |
51.0% |
48.0% |
3.0% |
- |
0.5% |
| CBS News |
49.0% |
47.0% |
2.0% |
- |
0.5% |
| Tarrance |
51.2% |
47.8% |
3.4% |
- |
0.9% |
| Harris |
49.0% |
48.0% |
1.0% |
- |
1.5% |
| NBC News |
48.0% |
47.0% |
1.0% |
- |
1.5% |
| Gallup |
49.0% |
49.0% |
- |
- |
2.5% |
| Dem Corps |
48.7% |
49.5% |
- |
0.8% |
3.3% |
| Marist |
49.0% |
50.0% |
- |
1.0% |
3.5% |
| Newsweek |
50.0% |
44.0% |
6.0% |
- |
3.5% |
| Fox News |
46.0% |
48.0% |
- |
2.0% |
4.5% |
| Lake (D) |
48.6% |
50.7% |
- |
2.1% |
4.6% |
Please contact us with any questions
or comments at tipponline@technometrica.com
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