Retrospective: Election 2004


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Final Certified Results Reveal TIPP as the Most Accurate Pollster of Election 2004

An analysis of the presidential election's final certified results shows that TIPP's daily tracking polls proved to be the most accurate in terms of predicting the winner and his margin of victory.

  • Among the four national daily tracking polls, TIPP came closest to projecting Bush's actual margin of victory (2.1% projected vs. 2.5% actual).
  • TIPP also outperformed a field of 11 other national, non-tracking pre-election polls, coming within just four-tenths of a percentage point to predicting Bush’s actual margin of victory (2.1% projected vs. 2.5% actual).
  • TIPP predicted the winner of the election in several pre-election venues, including CNBC’s Kudlow and Cramer and in the pages of Investor’s Business Daily.
"We developed strong tracking metrics and voter models that allowed us to accurately predict the election's outcome,” said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP. "These metrics enabled us to minimize error and capture trends as they developed. We had our finger on the pulse of America throughout all of its palpitations."


The Pollsters' Poll Positions

 
Candidates
Margin
Absolute
Difference
Bush
Kerry
Bush
Kerry
Actual
50.7%
48.3%
2.5%
-
-
Tracking Polls
TIPP
50.1%
48.0%
2.1%
-
0.4%
Rasmussen
50.2%
48.5%
1.7%
-
0.8%
ABC News
49.0%

48.0%

1.0%
-
1.5%
Zogby Int.
49.4%
49.1%
0.3%
-
2.2%
Other Polls
Pew
51.0%
48.0%
3.0%
-
0.5%
CBS News
49.0%
47.0%
2.0%
-
0.5%
Tarrance
51.2%
47.8%
3.4%
-
0.9%
Harris
49.0%
48.0%
1.0%
-
1.5%
NBC News
48.0%
47.0%
1.0%
-
1.5%
Gallup
49.0%
49.0%
-
-
2.5%
Dem Corps
48.7%
49.5%
-
0.8%
3.3%
Marist
49.0%
50.0%
-
1.0%
3.5%
Newsweek
50.0%
44.0%
6.0%
-
3.5%
Fox News
46.0%
48.0%
-
2.0%
4.5%
Lake (D)
48.6%
50.7%
-
2.1%
4.6%


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