2008 record      

 


  • The Direction Of The Country Index that we derive from our monthly polling improved 5% in February, its fourth straight gain after hitting a record low during the financial crisis in October. But at 35.7, it's still a long way from the 50 level that indicates optimism. Of the 21 demographic groups we track, only one - 18- to 24-year-olds - is optimistic about the country's direction, though

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  • Economy: Given the forces brought to bear in Washington, the chance of some kind of big-spending "stimulus" package getting passed looks pretty good. The only question is, what kind of stimulus?

    The answer to that question matters. It will go a long way toward deciding whether the bill will be acceptable to voters - and whether it will work economically.

  • Expect the January jobs report to be in line with the massive payroll declines of the previous two months.

    New year, same labor market. U.S. payrolls have fallen by more than 400,000 per month in the last four months, and by 584,000 in November and 524,000 in December. We expect a 550,000 January payroll decline in the Labor Dept.'s Feb. 6 employment

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  • As President Bush ended his term, the latest IBD/TIPP Poll showed that nearly half of Americans acknowledged his administration's policies made the U.S. safer from terrorism. Democrats are least likely to feel that way - but even 76% of them feel the U.S. is "very" or "somewhat safe." Overall, 20% of Americans feel "very safe" and 62% "somewhat safe."

  • The December jobs report, out Jan. 9, should show more massive payroll declines as the U.S. economy continues its downward spiral

    The U.S. labor market should suffer another indignity in December to close out a miserable year. After a massive nonfarm payrolls decline of 533,000 in November-the worst monthly job loss since December 1974-we at ...

  • I wrote the week before the election about the struggles of one pollster to reach the elusive demographic group of 18- to 24-year-olds and measure their collective opinion. Despite those challenges, TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy & Politics, the polling arm of the

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  • They were wrong in 2000 and 2004.

    There has been an explosion of polls this presidential election. Through yesterday, there have been 728 national polls with head-to-head matchups of the candidates, 215 in October alone. In 2004, there were just 239 matchup polls, with 67 of those in October. At this rate, there may be almost as many national polls in October of 2008 as there were

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  • According to most polls, Sen. Barack Obama holds a formidable lead over Sen. John McCain among the youngest voters. Among 18- to 29-year-olds, Obama leads by 32 points in the latest Gallup poll, by 36 points in the latest

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  • So what do "the rich" pay in federal income taxes? Nothing, right? That, at least, is what most people think. And Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama wants to raise the top marginal rate for "the rich" - known in some quarters as "job creators."

    A recent poll commissioned by Investor's Business Daily asked, in effect, "What share do you think the rich pay?" Their findings?

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  • Both candidates continue to tinker with their strategies.

    In the campaign's final two weeks, voters will take a last serious look at both presidential candidates. The outcome of the race isn't cast in stone yet.

    Barack Obama holds a 7.3% lead in the Real Clear Politics average of all polls, but the latest Gallup tracking poll reveals that there are nearly twice as many

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