Bush-Kerry Race Tied As RNC Bounce Fades, New IBD Survey
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IBD Staff
Investor's Business Daily - September 14, 2004
A new IBD/TIPP poll put
President Bush and Sen. John Kerry in a dead heat, suggesting Bush's
post-convention bounce is quickly disappearing.
In IBD/TIPP's first poll
of likely voters, conducted Sept. 7-12, both men garnered 47% in a two-man
race and 46% in a three-way race. In the latter scenario, independent
Ralph Nader would take just 3% of the vote.
Among registered voters,
Kerry holds a two-point edge over Bush, with or without Nader, the poll
found.
 |
For
polls taken after Labor Day, pollsters consider "likely voters"
a more accurate indicator of actual election outcomes.
IBD/TIPP
defines likely voters as adult Americans who say they are very
likely to vote in November, have a high level of interest in the
presidential election and have voted in every or nearly every
presidential election.
Other
polls show Bush ahead by four to 11 points. The latest Zogby and
Fox/Opinion Dynamics polls give Bush a four-point lead. He has
a five-point lead in an AP/Ipsos poll and 11 points in the latest
Time magazine survey. |
"The
boost Bush got during the RNC and the aura that surrounded an event
marked by clever speeches and hitchless execution may be fading,"
said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market
Intelligence, IBD's polling partner.
Meanwhile, fresh questions
have arisen about Bush's Vietnam-era National Guard service, though
questions also have been raised about the authenticity of documents
critical of Bush. Also, U.S. casualties in Iraq have surpassed 1,000,
a milestone played up by major media. And Kerry has sharpened his attacks
against Bush on Iraq and the economy.
While the candidates may
be returning to a dead-even race, Bush still seems to have an edge.
"In close elections
such as this, the intensity of candidate support is of utmost importance,"
Mayur said.
"Both Kerry and Bush
have been successful in winning the allegiance of more and more of their
respective party's traditional support base. However, the president
has consistently drawn stronger support from his supporters than Sen.
Kerry.
"Past elections have
shown intensity of candidate support strongly influences voter turnout,"
he said.
IBD's poll shows Bush's
intensity numbers are 25 percentage points above Kerry's 60%.
While Bush has locked up
his party's loyalty, Kerry still has room to improve. Ninety-four percent
of Republicans support Bush, while 83% of Democrats back Kerry.
Teflon
President?
Despite heavy criticism
from the Democratic campaign, anti-Bush independent groups such as Moveon.org,
Michael Moore and much of Hollywood, Americans continue to view the
president as a strong leader.
The IBD/TIPP Presidential
Leadership Index for September rose 2 points, or 4%, to 50.9, back above
the neutral 50 level for the first time since May.
The index includes results
from all Americans, not just likely voters. It's made up of three components:
a favorability rating, a job approval rating and a leadership score.
While all three components
are up this month, the leadership gauge shot up 3.1 points, or 6%, to
56.5. That's the biggest gain since after Bush's 2004 State of the Union
speech.
The poll also has good news
for Kerry. Among independents, Kerry leads Bush by 10 points, 48%-38%.
His lead is 12 points — 51%-39% — in battleground states.
Kerry also dominates among
urban dwellers (60% vs. 31%), while Bush leads in the suburbs (54% vs.
40%) and rural areas (57% vs. 36%).
Among likely voters who
are still feeling the sting of lost jobs or impending job losses, Kerry
has a 2-to-1 edge (61% vs. 32%). Investors back Bush 50%-40%, but noninvestors
favor Kerry by 15 points.
The
zeitgeist still points to a Bush victory. Some 48% of those polled foresee
Bush retaking the White House, while only 16% think Kerry will win.
Another third (31%) feel the race is too close to call.
