Bush Regains Lead As Memo-Gate Proves More Sabotage Than
News
IBD Staff
Investor's Business Daily - September 21, 2004
President
Bush has regained some of his post-convention lead in the latest IBD/TIPP
Poll as the effects of memos used in a "60 Minutes II" report
on his National Guard service start to wear off and CBS has admitted
it was misled on the authenticity of the documents.
The
poll taken Sept. 14 through Sept. 18 gives Bush a three-point lead (45%
to 42%) over Democratic challenger John Kerry among likely voters in
a three-way race, with independent Ralph Nader at just 2%.
The
lead remains intact (46% to 43%) in a head-to-head race without Nader
. The president also retains a one-point lead among registered voters
in both two- and three-man races.
"In
the end, the CBS scandal perhaps is helping the president grow stronger,
and he took back some of the post-convention bounce," said Raghavan
Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence,
IBD's polling partner. "Mudslinging, especially when false, evokes
some sympathy for the target."
Intensity
of support for Bush continues to be higher than for Kerry. More than
four of five (82%) Bush supporters say they support him strongly compared
with two of three (66%) of Kerry supporters who say so.
Bush
also continues to get more of his party's supporters (89%) than Kerry
among Democrats (83%). Independents are nearly evenly split: 38% for
Bush, 37% for Kerry.
In
2000, the gender gap was 22 points: Among men, Bush beat Vice President
Al Gore 53% to 42%; among women, Gore won 54% to 43%.
The
current poll shows a narrower gender gap of 13 points. Bush leads Kerry
among men 49% to 40%; among women Kerry leads 44% to 40%.
Among
married women, Bush is ahead 45% to 42%, while single women favor Kerry
48% to 32%.
Bush
draws more support from the new investor class. Investors favor him
49% to 42% while noninvestors back Kerry 43% to 38%.
Kerry
maintains his urban advantage (48% to 39% for Bush) while Bush retains
his superiority among rural voters (54% to 35%). The race in the suburbs
is tight: Bush 43%, Kerry 42%.
Last
week, IBD/TIPP called it first when the president's post-RNC bounce
began to corrode. Eventually, a Harris poll and a Pew poll were released
that corroborated IBD/TIPP's finding.
This
time, a poll by Zogby International published horse race results nearly
identical to our IBD/TIPP, giving the president a three-point lead over
Kerry (46% to 43%).
But
the IBD/TIPP poll is at variance with two other surveys: one conducted
by Gallup that showed Bush ahead of Kerry 54% to 40% and the other by
New York Times/CBS showing Bush up 50% to 41%.
Many
factors affect how the results of a poll come out. Differences in methodologies,
weighting schemes, question wording and interviewing dates play the
most important roles, according to Mayur.
Despite
poll numbers — from IBD/TIPP and other major polling organizations
— that reflect a close race, likely voters who were asked about
the future continue to foresee a Bush victory.
Overall,
47% think Bush will prevail while only 17% think Kerry will win. About
a third (30%) think the election is too close to call.
Perhaps
reflecting the uncertainty over Kerry's ability to lead the nation in
times of crisis, only a third (32%) of Democrats expect Kerry to win
the White House. On the other hand, three of four (74%) Republicans
think Bush will serve for another four years.
Independents
also expect to see a Bush victory by a margin of nearly 4 to 1 (with
50% predicting a Bush win vs. 13% for Kerry).
