2012 Presidential Tracking Poll
- Last Updated on Wednesday, 19 December 2012 18:33
- Written by TIPP Staff
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Updated Nov 5, 2012
President Obama holds slim but clear lead in our final poll, 50.3% to 48.7%, or 1.6 percentage points, with just 1% preferring other candidates. Romney runs behind in all age groups, except for those over 65, in which he has a 53%-46% edge. The results also show a pronounced gender split, with men favoring Romney 54%-46%, while women preferred Obama 55%-44%. But even among women there was a gap, with married women handing Romney a 6-point advantage, while unmarried women opted for Obama by a substantial 29 points. And even though Romney holds a 6-point lead among independents, Obama's 86-point advantage among Democrats -- who outnumber Republicans in registration -- gives him the overall lead.
For the first time since we started the poll, Obama garners 40% of the white vote. That's a critical threshold he had to hit in order to make a win possible. Romney continues to hold a significant 6-point advantage with independents and a 14-point edge with investors. Romney performs better with Conservatives than McCain did in 2008. Catholic voters are breaking for Romney. He now holds a 17-point lead among this group, up from just 1 point in the Oct. 28 poll.
November 6, 2012
| Category | Obama | Romney | Other |
| Overall | 50.3% | 48.7% | 1% |
| Region | |||
| Northeast | 56% | 43% | 1% |
| Midwest | 50% | 49% | 1% |
| South | 47% | 52% | 1% |
| West | 51% | 48% | 1% |
| Age | |||
| 18-44 | 52% | 47% | 1% |
| 45-64 | 51% | 48% | 1% |
| 65+ | 46% | 53% | 1% |
| Gender | |||
| Male | 46% | 54% | 1% |
| Female | 55% | 44% | 1% |
| Race | |||
| White | 40% | 59% | 1% |
| Black/Hispanic | 87% | 13% | 1% |
| Income | |||
| Under 30K | 67% | 33% | 1% |
| 30K-50K | 50% | 49% | 1% |
| 50-75K | 57% | 42% | 1% |
| 75K+ | 41% | 58% | 1% |
| Party | |||
| Democrats | 93% | 6% | 1% |
| Republicans | 6% | 94% | 0% |
| Ind./Other | 46% | 52% | 2% |
| Investor Class | |||
| Yes | 43% | 57% | 1% |
| No | 62% | 37% | 1% |
| Area Type | |||
| Urban | 58% | 40% | 2% |
| Suburban | 51% | 48% | 1% |
| Rural | 37% | 62% | 1% |
| White | |||
| White men | 36% | 63% | 1% |
| White women | 43% | 55% | 1% |
| Black/Hispanic | |||
| Black* | 94% | 5% | 1% |
| Hispanic* | 70% | 29% | 1% |
| Women | |||
| Single women | 64% | 35% | 2% |
| Married women | 47% | 53% | 1% |
| Education | |||
| High School | 55% | 43% | 1% |
| Some College | 54% | 44% | 2% |
| College Degree or more | 47% | 52% | 1% |
| Ideology | |||
| Conservative | 22% | 78% | 1% |
| Moderate | 60% | 40% | 1% |
| Liberal | 95% | 4% | 1% |
| Household Description | |||
| Upper/Upper Middle | 43% | 56% | 1% |
| Middle | 48% | 51% | 1% |
| Working | 60% | 39% | 1% |
| Lower* | 55% | 45% | 1% |
| Religion | |||
| Protestant | 39% | 60% | 0% |
| Catholic | 41% | 58% | 1% |
| Other Christian | 50% | 49% | 1% |
| Jewish* | 55% | 43% | 2% |
| Other* | 58% | 39% | 3% |
| None | 70% | 28% | 1% |
| Union Household | |||
| Yes | 62% | 36% | 1% |
| No | 48% | 51% | 1% |
| 2008 Vote | |||
| Obama | 93% | 6% | 1% |
| McCain | 4% | 95% | 0% |
*Small sample size. Interpret with caution.
Polling period: 11/03 - 11/05 Methodology: Traditional telephone methodology, live interviewers call both landline and cell phone Random Digit Dial (RDD) samples. Our methodology statement is available here
Sample size: 712 likely voters (identified from 893 registered voters with party affiliation of 38% Dem, 31% GOP, 32% Ind.)
Margin of Error: +/- 3.7 percentage points
TIPP Poll Past Performance
The TIPP Poll was the most accurate presidential poll having come in #1 in both the 2004 and 2008 Presidential elections. An article summarizing the results is available here. The official election results compiled by the Federal Election Commission for 2008 is available here and for 2004 is available here. Readers may note that some analysis of results and pollster performance ranking on the Internet are obsolete because they analyze accuracy based on election night results, which are significantly different from the final results when all votes were counted.
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