2012 Presidential Tracking Poll

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Updated Nov 5, 2012
President Obama holds slim but clear lead in our final poll, 50.3% to 48.7%, or 1.6 percentage points, with just 1% preferring other candidates. Romney runs behind in all age groups, except for those over 65, in which he has a 53%-46% edge. The results also show a pronounced gender split, with men favoring Romney 54%-46%, while women preferred Obama 55%-44%. But even among women there was a gap, with married women handing Romney a 6-point advantage, while unmarried women opted for Obama by a substantial 29 points. And even though Romney holds a 6-point lead among independents, Obama's 86-point advantage among Democrats -- who outnumber Republicans in registration -- gives him the overall lead.

For the first time since we started the poll, Obama garners 40% of the white vote. That's a critical threshold he had to hit in order to make a win possible. Romney continues to hold a significant 6-point advantage with independents and a 14-point edge with investors. Romney performs better with Conservatives than McCain did in 2008.  Catholic voters are breaking for Romney. He now holds a 17-point lead among this group, up from just 1 point in the Oct. 28 poll.

 November 6, 2012

Category Obama Romney Other
Overall 50.3% 48.7% 1%
Region
Northeast 56% 43% 1%
Midwest 50% 49% 1%
South 47% 52% 1%
West 51% 48% 1%
Age
18-44 52% 47% 1%
45-64 51% 48% 1%
65+ 46% 53% 1%
Gender
Male 46% 54% 1%
Female 55% 44% 1%
Race
White 40% 59% 1%
Black/Hispanic 87% 13% 1%
Income
Under 30K 67% 33% 1%
30K-50K 50% 49% 1%
50-75K 57% 42% 1%
75K+ 41% 58% 1%
Party
Democrats 93% 6% 1%
Republicans 6% 94% 0%
Ind./Other 46% 52% 2%
Investor Class
Yes 43% 57% 1%
No 62% 37% 1%
Area Type
Urban 58% 40% 2%
Suburban 51% 48% 1%
Rural 37% 62% 1%
White
White men 36% 63% 1%
White women 43% 55% 1%
Black/Hispanic
Black* 94% 5% 1%
Hispanic* 70% 29% 1%
Women
Single women 64% 35% 2%
Married women 47% 53% 1%
Education
High School 55% 43% 1%
Some College 54% 44% 2%
College Degree or more 47% 52% 1%
Ideology
Conservative 22% 78% 1%
Moderate 60% 40% 1%
Liberal 95% 4% 1%
Household Description
Upper/Upper Middle 43% 56% 1%
Middle 48% 51% 1%
Working 60% 39% 1%
Lower* 55% 45% 1%
Religion
Protestant 39% 60% 0%
Catholic 41% 58% 1%
Other Christian 50% 49% 1%
Jewish* 55% 43% 2%
Other* 58% 39% 3%
None 70% 28% 1%
Union Household
Yes 62% 36% 1%
No 48% 51% 1%
2008 Vote
Obama 93% 6% 1%
McCain 4% 95% 0%

*Small sample size. Interpret with caution.

Polling period: 11/03 - 11/05 Methodology: Traditional telephone methodology, live interviewers call both landline and cell phone Random Digit Dial (RDD) samples.  Our methodology statement is available here

Sample size: 712 likely voters (identified from 893 registered voters with party affiliation of 38% Dem, 31% GOP, 32% Ind.)

Margin of Error: +/- 3.7 percentage points

TIPP Poll Past Performance

The TIPP Poll was the most accurate presidential poll having come in #1 in both the 2004 and 2008 Presidential elections.  An article summarizing the results is available here.  The official election results compiled by the Federal Election Commission for 2008 is available here and for 2004 is available here.  Readers may note that some analysis of results and pollster performance ranking on the Internet are obsolete because they analyze accuracy based on election night results, which are significantly different from the final results when all votes were counted.

 

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