With no end in sight to the partial shutdown of the government, President Trump hasn't convinced a majority of the public to back his position on the border wall at the center of the budget impasse.
The latest IBD/TIPP poll shows that 53% of the public opposes construction of a wall along the southern border of the U.S. It found that 46% support the wall.
Trump has managed to change some minds, however. Overall support for the wall climbed by three points since IBD/TIPP last polled on this question just before the November midterm elections. Opposition, however, remains unchanged.
Interestingly, the biggest shift in opinion comes from independents. In November, only 38% of independents say they backed the wall. Now 44% do. Opposition has dropped from 57% to 54%.
In other words, there's been a net 9 shift toward favoring the wall among this key group of voters.
Among Democrats and Republicans, positioned only hardened. In November, 87% of Democrats said they opposed the border wall. Today, 90% oppose it. And while 85% of Republicans said they back the wall before, 89% do now.
But Trump has clearly failed to convince the public about the government shutdown. Trump has refused to sign spending bills to fund the remaining 25% of the federal government through this year unless Congress provides funding for the border wall. Trump has asked for $5.7 billion. Democrats, however, have adamantly refused to agree to any border wall construction funds.
The resulting impasse has kept about 25% of the government shutdown since December 23 — making it the longest shutdown in history. The impact of the shutdown, however, has been limited because federal workers deemed "essential" are still reporting for duty, and will be paid when the shutdown ends.
The latest IBD/TIPP Poll finds that 57% oppose Trump's demand for border wall funding before he will sign a federal spending bill. Only 41% back Trump's position.
On a partisan basis, 92% of Democrats oppose Trump, as do 59% of independents. Support for the shutdown among Republicans is still overwhelming, however, with 84% backing Trump's stand.
The poll found much stronger support among men (50% of whom back Trump on the shutdown), than women (only 33% back him). Support is ever stronger among white men, 61% of whom back Trump on the shutdown. Only 23% of blacks and Hispanics do, however.
Regionally, Trump gets his strongest support for the shutdown from those living in rural areas. The IBD/TIPP poll found that 53% of rural adults back his demand for border wall funding, with 44% opposed.
On the other hand, 66% of urban dwellers oppose Trump, and only 32% back him. Among suburbanites, the split is 60% oppose, 39% support.
The poll also found that Trump's approval rating has edged up three points to 42%, with 54% saying they disapprove of the job he's doing.
The new poll shows 42% view Trump favorably, compared with 40% last month. And 54% have an unfavorable view of Trump, compared with 53% last month.
Trump also gained 3%, to 44, in the exclusive IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index. This index combines results on several poll questions regarding leadership, favorability and job approval.
More IBD/TIPP poll results can be found here.
Methodology: The January IBD/TIPP Poll was conducted from January 1 to January 12. It includes responses from 903 adults nationwide, who were asked questions by live interviewers on phones. The poll's margin of error is +/-3.3 percentage points. (Toplines from the poll will be posted here later this week.)
The IBD/TIPP Poll has been credited as being the most accurate poll in the past four presidential elections, and was one of only two that correctly predicted the outcome of the November 2016 presidential election.
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