One year after his surprise victory in the 2016 elections, President Trump's approval rating remains mired in the mid-30s, while half the public say he has met or exceeded their expectations as president, according to the latest IBD/TIPP Poll.
The poll also finds that the public's outlook has improved on a variety of measures in the past year.
The November poll asked people whether the Trump presidency so far has met, exceeded or fallen short of expectations.
Forty percent say Trump has met their expectations and 10% say he's exceeded them; 46% say Trump has fallen short of what they expected.
On a partisan basis, 27% of Democrats say Trump has met their expectations, 66% say he's fallen short, and 3% say he's done better than they expected. Among Republicans, 54% say he met expectations, but the share who feel he's exceeded expectations is nearly identical to the share who say he's fallen short (22% vs. 23%). Forty one percent of independents say Trump met expectations, 47% say he's fallen short, and only 8% say he's exceeded them.
Urban and suburban adults are most likely to say Trump has fallen short (50% and 51%, respectively). But 59% of those living in rural areas say he's done as well or better than they expected.
The national poll was taken from Oct. 26-Nov. 3, and includes responses from 917 adults, giving it a margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points.
Trump's overall approval rating edged up this month by three points to 36%, with 58% saying they disapprove of the job he's doing.
His favorability rating is -19 points, with 56% saying they have an unfavorable view compared with 37% favorable.
The proprietary IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index — which combines results from job approval, favorability and leadership questions — climbed 9% this month, but at 39.8 it is still below Trump's average Index reading of 41.1 since he took office.
An Improved National Mood
Trump's low approval numbers come despite the fact that the country is in a better mood, overall, than it was on the eve of the presidential elections one year ago Tuesday.
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has been consistently higher since Trump was elected than it was a year ago. The index has averaged 53 through October this year. It stood at 51.4 in IBD/TIPP's November 2016 poll, which was conducted just before the elections took place.
A year ago, more than a third of adults surveyed (34%) thought the economy was in a recession and only 49% thought it was improving. Today, just 19% think the economy is in a recession and 53% say it's improving.
The share of job seekers is down, too. The latest poll has it at 11.3%, whereas it was 13.1% just before the 2016 elections. These figures track the official unemployment rate, which was 4.8% last year and is now down to 4.1%.
People are less stressed financially too, according to the poll's Financial Related Stress Index, which is 5% lower today that it was last November.
The share who think the country is headed in the right direction, however, has remained unchanged at 40%.
None of this has helped boost Trump's appeal to the public. At 39.8, Trump's current Presidential Leadership Index is almost 26% lower than it was for Obama in November 2016.
Other Poll Results
In other findings, the poll shows that key provisions of the Republican's tax plan continue to win widespread support among the public.
- 57% back lowering the corporate income tax rate to 20% from the current 35%.
- 55% support cutting tax rates for individuals down to three brackets.
- 83% approve of lowering the tax rate on small businesses that file taxes as individuals.
- 66% approve of doubling the standard deduction.
The poll also found that few people have been following the breaking news regarding the controversial Uranium One deal, which gave Russia control of 20% of U.S. uranium supplies. The Hill reported recently that the FBI had evidence that Russian nuclear officials had been involved in serious crimes in the U.S. at the time the deal was approved by Obama officials, raising questions about Russian influence-peddling in the administration.
Just 48% say they are following that story closely; 51% say they aren't.
However, far more are following the latest revelations that the Clinton campaign and the DNC had financed the controversial Trump dossier, which alleged collusion by the Trump campaign and the Russian government. That revelation has seriously undermined the credibility of that dossier, which has been the driving force behind the entire Trump/Russia investigation.
Nearly two thirds (64%) say they are following this new element of the story closely.
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