Obama Widens Lead Over Romney

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President Obama's lead over Governor Romney widens from 1-point in July to 7-points in August, according to the latest Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll.  Romney loses ground among independents, men, and suburban voters.

 

Q:  If the 2012 election for United States President were held today and the following were candidates for whom would you vote?

46% Democrat Barack Obama
39% Republican Mitt Romney
12% Not sure
3%   Refused

Category Obama Romney Not sure Refused Total
Overall 46% 39% 12% 3% 100%
Region
Northeast 55% 33% 12% 0% 100%
Midwest 46% 38% 13% 4% 100%
South 40% 43% 15% 3% 100%
West 51% 41% 6% 2% 100%
Age
18-44 50% 34% 14% 2% 100%
45-64 45% 40% 12% 4% 100%
65+ 40% 49% 9% 2% 100%
Gender
Male 47% 41% 9% 3% 100%
Female 46% 37% 15% 2% 100%
Race
White 39% 48% 12% 2% 100%
Black/Hispanic 82% 7% 9% 1% 100%
Income
Under 30K 54% 30% 15% 1% 100%
30K-50K 43% 44% 12% 1% 100%
50-75K 42% 46% 9% 2% 100%
75K+ 44% 41% 12% 3% 100%
Party
Democrats 85% 8% 6% 2% 100%
Republicans 9% 80% 10% 1% 100%
Ind./Other 41% 36% 20% 3% 100%
Investor Class
Yes 44% 42% 11% 3% 100%
No 49% 37% 13% 2% 100%
Area Type
Urban 55% 30% 12% 4% 100%
Suburban 48% 40% 10% 2% 100%
Rural 36% 46% 16% 2% 100%
White
White men 39% 50% 9% 2% 100%
White women 38% 45% 14% 2% 100%
Black/Hispanic
Black 88% 1% 9% 2% 100%
Hispanic 70% 19% 11% 0% 100%
Women
Single women 56% 29% 13% 2% 100%
Married women 38% 45% 16% 2% 100%
Education
High School 42% 42% 14% 2% 100%
Some College 48% 41% 9% 2% 100%
College Degree or more 47% 37% 12% 3% 100%
Ideology
Conservative 17% 67% 13% 2% 100%
Moderate 56% 27% 15% 2% 100%
Liberal 90% 7% 3% 0% 100%

The TIPP Poll was conducted from August 3 to August 10 using traditional telephone methodology using Random Digit Dial (RDD) landline and cell phone samples; sample Size: 828 Registered Voters nationwide, Margin of error - plus/minus 3.5 percentage points. 

Party ID of sample:  In politics, do you consider yourself to be a DEMOCRAT, a REPUBLICAN, an INDEPENDENT, or something else?  Democrat(36%), Republican (31%), Independent/Other(30%),  Not sure/Refused(3%)

TIPP Poll Past Performance

The TIPP Poll was the most accurate presidential poll having come in #1 in both the 2004 and 2008 Presidential elections.  An article summarizing the results is available here.  The official election results compiled by the Federal Election Commission for 2008 is available here and for 2004 is available here.  Readers may note that some analysis of results and pollster performance ranking on the Internet are obsolete because they analyze accuracy based on election night results, which are significantly different from the final results when all votes were counted.

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