Race Tightens As Obama Advantage Narrows To 2 Points

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President Obama's lead over Governor Romney shrinks from 7 points in August to 2 points in September, according to the latest Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll.  Romney gains support from men, southern, and rural voters this month.

 

Q:  If the 2012 election for United States President were held today and the following were candidates for whom would you vote?

46% Democrat Barack Obama
44% Republican Mitt Romney
8% Not sure
2%   Refused

Category Obama Romney Not sure Refused
Overall 46% 44% 8% 2%
Region
Northeast 53% 35% 9% 2%
Midwest 49% 42% 8% 1%
South 39% 51% 8% 2%
West 45% 43% 8% 4%
Age
18-44 49% 39% 9% 3%
45-64 45% 47% 6% 2%
65+ 41% 47% 9% 3%
Gender
Male 40% 48% 10% 2%
Female 51% 40% 6% 2%
Race
White 37% 52% 8% 2%
Black/Hispanic 80% 12% 4% 4%
Income
Under 30K 50% 36% 7% 6%
30K-50K 47% 43% 10% 0%
50-75K 41% 48% 9% 1%
75K+ 47% 47% 5% 1%
Party
Democrats 85% 9% 3% 3%
Republicans 6% 88% 4% 2%
Ind./Other 41% 41% 17% 1%
Investor Class
Yes 44% 48% 6% 2%
No 47% 40% 10% 3%
Area Type
Urban 61% 29% 10% 0%
Suburban 48% 40% 9% 4%
Rural 34% 58% 6% 2%
White
White men 30% 57% 12% 1%
White women 44% 48% 5% 2%
Black/Hispanic
Black 88% 6% 2% 4%
Hispanic* 62% 27% 8% 4%
Women
Single women 57% 30% 10% 4%
Married women 45% 50% 4% 1%
Education
High School 51% 39% 8% 2%
Some College 33% 52% 11% 4%
College Degree or more 50% 42% 6% 2%
Ideology
Conservative 21% 70% 7% 3%
Moderate 56% 34% 8% 1%
Liberal 88% 3% 9% 1%
Household Description
Upper/Upper Middle 38% 53% 6% 3%
Middle 47% 44% 7% 1%
Working 42% 46% 9% 2%
Lower 54% 28% 11% 8%
Religion
Protestant 36% 55% 6% 3%
Catholic 46% 44% 7% 2%
Other Christian 43% 47% 8% 3%
Jewish* 59% 35% 6% 0%
Other 38% 47% 15% 0%
None 73% 17% 8% 2%
Union Household
Yes 53% 34% 10% 3%
No 44% 46% 7% 2%
2008 Vote
Obama 82% 9% 7% 2%
McCain 4% 90% 5% 1%

*small sample size

The TIPP Poll was conducted from September 4 to September 9 using traditional telephone methodology using Random Digit Dial (RDD) landline and cell phone samples; sample Size: 808 Registered Voters nationwide, Margin of error - plus/minus 3.5 percentage points. 

Party ID of sample:  In politics, do you consider yourself to be a DEMOCRAT, a REPUBLICAN, an INDEPENDENT, or something else?  Democrat(36%), Republican (31%), Independent/Other(30%),  Not sure/Refused(3%)

TIPP Poll Past Performance

The TIPP Poll was the most accurate presidential poll having come in #1 in both the 2004 and 2008 Presidential elections.  An article summarizing the results is available here.  The official election results compiled by the Federal Election Commission for 2008 is available here and for 2004 is available here.  Readers may note that some analysis of results and pollster performance ranking on the Internet are obsolete because they analyze accuracy based on election night results, which are significantly different from the final results when all votes were counted.

 

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