Race Tightens As Obama Advantage Narrows To 2 Points
- Published on Monday, 10 September 2012 18:11
- Written by TIPP Staff
- Hits: 222867
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President Obama's lead over Governor Romney shrinks from 7 points in August to 2 points in September, according to the latest Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll. Romney gains support from men, southern, and rural voters this month.
Q: If the 2012 election for United States President were held today and the following were candidates for whom would you vote?
46% Democrat Barack Obama
44% Republican Mitt Romney
8% Not sure
2% Refused
| Category | Obama | Romney | Not sure | Refused |
| Overall | 46% | 44% | 8% | 2% |
| Region | ||||
| Northeast | 53% | 35% | 9% | 2% |
| Midwest | 49% | 42% | 8% | 1% |
| South | 39% | 51% | 8% | 2% |
| West | 45% | 43% | 8% | 4% |
| Age | ||||
| 18-44 | 49% | 39% | 9% | 3% |
| 45-64 | 45% | 47% | 6% | 2% |
| 65+ | 41% | 47% | 9% | 3% |
| Gender | ||||
| Male | 40% | 48% | 10% | 2% |
| Female | 51% | 40% | 6% | 2% |
| Race | ||||
| White | 37% | 52% | 8% | 2% |
| Black/Hispanic | 80% | 12% | 4% | 4% |
| Income | ||||
| Under 30K | 50% | 36% | 7% | 6% |
| 30K-50K | 47% | 43% | 10% | 0% |
| 50-75K | 41% | 48% | 9% | 1% |
| 75K+ | 47% | 47% | 5% | 1% |
| Party | ||||
| Democrats | 85% | 9% | 3% | 3% |
| Republicans | 6% | 88% | 4% | 2% |
| Ind./Other | 41% | 41% | 17% | 1% |
| Investor Class | ||||
| Yes | 44% | 48% | 6% | 2% |
| No | 47% | 40% | 10% | 3% |
| Area Type | ||||
| Urban | 61% | 29% | 10% | 0% |
| Suburban | 48% | 40% | 9% | 4% |
| Rural | 34% | 58% | 6% | 2% |
| White | ||||
| White men | 30% | 57% | 12% | 1% |
| White women | 44% | 48% | 5% | 2% |
| Black/Hispanic | ||||
| Black | 88% | 6% | 2% | 4% |
| Hispanic* | 62% | 27% | 8% | 4% |
| Women | ||||
| Single women | 57% | 30% | 10% | 4% |
| Married women | 45% | 50% | 4% | 1% |
| Education | ||||
| High School | 51% | 39% | 8% | 2% |
| Some College | 33% | 52% | 11% | 4% |
| College Degree or more | 50% | 42% | 6% | 2% |
| Ideology | ||||
| Conservative | 21% | 70% | 7% | 3% |
| Moderate | 56% | 34% | 8% | 1% |
| Liberal | 88% | 3% | 9% | 1% |
| Household Description | ||||
| Upper/Upper Middle | 38% | 53% | 6% | 3% |
| Middle | 47% | 44% | 7% | 1% |
| Working | 42% | 46% | 9% | 2% |
| Lower | 54% | 28% | 11% | 8% |
| Religion | ||||
| Protestant | 36% | 55% | 6% | 3% |
| Catholic | 46% | 44% | 7% | 2% |
| Other Christian | 43% | 47% | 8% | 3% |
| Jewish* | 59% | 35% | 6% | 0% |
| Other | 38% | 47% | 15% | 0% |
| None | 73% | 17% | 8% | 2% |
| Union Household | ||||
| Yes | 53% | 34% | 10% | 3% |
| No | 44% | 46% | 7% | 2% |
| 2008 Vote | ||||
| Obama | 82% | 9% | 7% | 2% |
| McCain | 4% | 90% | 5% | 1% |
*small sample size
The TIPP Poll was conducted from September 4 to September 9 using traditional telephone methodology using Random Digit Dial (RDD) landline and cell phone samples; sample Size: 808 Registered Voters nationwide, Margin of error - plus/minus 3.5 percentage points.
Party ID of sample: In politics, do you consider yourself to be a DEMOCRAT, a REPUBLICAN, an INDEPENDENT, or something else? Democrat(36%), Republican (31%), Independent/Other(30%), Not sure/Refused(3%)
TIPP Poll Past Performance
The TIPP Poll was the most accurate presidential poll having come in #1 in both the 2004 and 2008 Presidential elections. An article summarizing the results is available here. The official election results compiled by the Federal Election Commission for 2008 is available here and for 2004 is available here. Readers may note that some analysis of results and pollster performance ranking on the Internet are obsolete because they analyze accuracy based on election night results, which are significantly different from the final results when all votes were counted.
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