Race Tightens in the Aftermath of Healthcare Ruling

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In the latest Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor /TIPP Poll, conducted after the Supreme Court ruling on healthcare, President Obama leads Governor Romney by 1-point.  Romney’s 7-point advantage with Independent voters in our last poll has now narrowed to 3-points.

Q:  If the 2012 election for United States President were held today and the following were candidates for whom would you vote?

43% Democrat Barack Obama
42% Republican Mitt Romney
2%   Libertarian Gary Johnson
3%   Other
9%   Not sure
1%   Refused

Category Obama Romney Johnson Other Not sure Refused Total
Overall 43% 42% 2%  3%    9% 1% 100%
Region
Northeast 47% 36% 2%  1% 12% 2% 100%
Midwest 42% 37% 3%  6% 10% 1% 100%
South 40% 46% 2%  3% 8% 1% 100%
West 43% 46% 1%  1% 8% 2% 100%
Age
18-44 45% 38% 2%  4% 10% 1% 100%
45-64 41% 46% 1%  2% 8% 2% 100%
65+ 43% 42% 1%  3% 7% 3% 100%
Gender
Male 37% 47% 1%  4% 9% 2% 100%
Female 48% 37% 2%  2% 9% 1% 100%
Race
White 35% 50% 2%  2% 9% 1% 100%
Black/Hispanic 75% 12% 1%  4% 8% 0% 100%
Income
Under 30K 53% 24% 3%  7% 10% 3% 100%
30K-50K 38% 39% 5%  5% 11% 1% 100%
50-75K 35% 51% 1%  0% 13% 0% 100%
75K+ 44% 49% 0%  1% 5% 0% 100%
Party
Democrats 86% 6% 1%  1% 5% 2% 100%
Republicans 3% 89% 2%  2% 4% 1% 100%
Ind./Other 35% 38% 2%  7% 16% 1% 100%
Investor Class
Yes 41% 49% 1%  2% 6% 2% 100%
No 45% 35% 3%  4% 13% 1% 100%
Area Type
Urban 54% 31% 2%  2% 10% 1% 100%
Suburban 39% 46% 2%  4% 8% 1% 100%
Rural 38% 45% 2%  4% 9% 2% 100%
White
White men 29% 56% 1%  4% 9% 1% 100%
White women 39% 46% 3%  1% 10% 2% 100%
Black/Hispanic
Black 86% 4% 0%  3% 7% 0% 100%
Hispanic 53% 29% 3%  7% 8% 0% 100%
Women
Single women 54% 30% 4%  2% 8% 1% 100%
Married women 43% 44% 1%  2% 9% 1% 100%
Education
High School 40% 38% 1%  7% 12% 2% 100%
Some College 43% 39% 1%  2% 13% 2% 100%
College Degree or more 43% 45% 2%  2% 6% 1% 100%
Ideology
Conservative 20% 64% 2%  5% 7% 2% 100%
Moderate 48% 34% 2%  3% 12% 2% 100%
Liberal 89% 4% 2%  0% 5% 0% 100%

The TIPP Poll was conducted from July 26 to July 5 using traditional telephone methodology using Random Digit Dial (RDD) landline and cell phone samples; sample Size: 825 Registered Voters nationwide, Margin of error - plus/minus 3.5 percentage points. 

Party ID of sample:  In politics, do you consider yourself to be a DEMOCRAT, a REPUBLICAN, an INDEPENDENT, or something else?  Democrat(33.5%), Republican (29.3%), Independent/Other(33.4%),  Not sure/Refused(3.8%)

TIPP Poll Past Performance

The TIPP Poll was the most accurate presidential poll having come in #1 in both the 2004 and 2008 Presidential elections.  An article summarizing the results is available here.  The official election results compiled by the Federal Election Commission for 2008 is available here and for 2004 is available here.  Readers may note that some analysis of results and pollster performance ranking on the Internet are obsolete because they analyze accuracy based on election night results, which are significantly different from the final results when all votes were counted.

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