Race Tightens in the Aftermath of Healthcare Ruling
- Published on Friday, 06 July 2012 10:38
- Written by TIPP Staff
- Hits: 2428
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In the latest Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor /TIPP Poll, conducted after the Supreme Court ruling on healthcare, President Obama leads Governor Romney by 1-point. Romney’s 7-point advantage with Independent voters in our last poll has now narrowed to 3-points.
Q: If the 2012 election for United States President were held today and the following were candidates for whom would you vote?
43% Democrat Barack Obama
42% Republican Mitt Romney
2% Libertarian Gary Johnson
3% Other
9% Not sure
1% Refused
| Category | Obama | Romney | Johnson | Other | Not sure | Refused | Total |
| Overall | 43% | 42% | 2% | 3% | 9% | 1% | 100% |
| Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 47% | 36% | 2% | 1% | 12% | 2% | 100% |
| Midwest | 42% | 37% | 3% | 6% | 10% | 1% | 100% |
| South | 40% | 46% | 2% | 3% | 8% | 1% | 100% |
| West | 43% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 8% | 2% | 100% |
| Age | |||||||
| 18-44 | 45% | 38% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 1% | 100% |
| 45-64 | 41% | 46% | 1% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 100% |
| 65+ | 43% | 42% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 100% |
| Gender | |||||||
| Male | 37% | 47% | 1% | 4% | 9% | 2% | 100% |
| Female | 48% | 37% | 2% | 2% | 9% | 1% | 100% |
| Race | |||||||
| White | 35% | 50% | 2% | 2% | 9% | 1% | 100% |
| Black/Hispanic | 75% | 12% | 1% | 4% | 8% | 0% | 100% |
| Income | |||||||
| Under 30K | 53% | 24% | 3% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 100% |
| 30K-50K | 38% | 39% | 5% | 5% | 11% | 1% | 100% |
| 50-75K | 35% | 51% | 1% | 0% | 13% | 0% | 100% |
| 75K+ | 44% | 49% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 0% | 100% |
| Party | |||||||
| Democrats | 86% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 100% |
| Republicans | 3% | 89% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 100% |
| Ind./Other | 35% | 38% | 2% | 7% | 16% | 1% | 100% |
| Investor Class | |||||||
| Yes | 41% | 49% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 100% |
| No | 45% | 35% | 3% | 4% | 13% | 1% | 100% |
| Area Type | |||||||
| Urban | 54% | 31% | 2% | 2% | 10% | 1% | 100% |
| Suburban | 39% | 46% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 1% | 100% |
| Rural | 38% | 45% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 2% | 100% |
| White | |||||||
| White men | 29% | 56% | 1% | 4% | 9% | 1% | 100% |
| White women | 39% | 46% | 3% | 1% | 10% | 2% | 100% |
| Black/Hispanic | |||||||
| Black | 86% | 4% | 0% | 3% | 7% | 0% | 100% |
| Hispanic | 53% | 29% | 3% | 7% | 8% | 0% | 100% |
| Women | |||||||
| Single women | 54% | 30% | 4% | 2% | 8% | 1% | 100% |
| Married women | 43% | 44% | 1% | 2% | 9% | 1% | 100% |
| Education | |||||||
| High School | 40% | 38% | 1% | 7% | 12% | 2% | 100% |
| Some College | 43% | 39% | 1% | 2% | 13% | 2% | 100% |
| College Degree or more | 43% | 45% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 1% | 100% |
| Ideology | |||||||
| Conservative | 20% | 64% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 2% | 100% |
| Moderate | 48% | 34% | 2% | 3% | 12% | 2% | 100% |
| Liberal | 89% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 100% |
The TIPP Poll was conducted from July 26 to July 5 using traditional telephone methodology using Random Digit Dial (RDD) landline and cell phone samples; sample Size: 825 Registered Voters nationwide, Margin of error - plus/minus 3.5 percentage points.
Party ID of sample: In politics, do you consider yourself to be a DEMOCRAT, a REPUBLICAN, an INDEPENDENT, or something else? Democrat(33.5%), Republican (29.3%), Independent/Other(33.4%), Not sure/Refused(3.8%)
TIPP Poll Past Performance
The TIPP Poll was the most accurate presidential poll having come in #1 in both the 2004 and 2008 Presidential elections. An article summarizing the results is available here. The official election results compiled by the Federal Election Commission for 2008 is available here and for 2004 is available here. Readers may note that some analysis of results and pollster performance ranking on the Internet are obsolete because they analyze accuracy based on election night results, which are significantly different from the final results when all votes were counted.
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