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IBD/TIPP 2020 Daily Presidential Tracking Poll: Day 23 Analysis

The final Trump vs. Biden poll finds a clear, though modest, national popular vote lead for former Vice President Joe Biden on Election Day. However, the final IBD/TIPP presidential poll hints that the race may be close enough to keep alive President Donald Trump's Electoral College chances.

Today's Trump vs. Biden poll update finds the Democratic challenger leading the Republican incumbent by 4 points, 50.2%-46.2%, in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters. Biden's lead was 3.2 points on Monday.

Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 2%, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins 0.8% in the latest Biden vs. Trump poll.

The IBD/TIPP presidential poll suggests that Trump's closing strength among men and rural voters has made the race competitive.  Yet, despite some apparent tightening, four keys to Biden's chances have remained solid. Suburban voters back the Democrat by a comfortable margin. Wayward Trump voters are costing the president a small but significant share of his 2016 support. Meanwhile, Biden holds a wide advantage among those who voted for a third party or didn't vote in 2016.

Head-To-Head Trump Vs Biden Poll

In a head-to-head Trump vs. Biden poll, the Democratic nominee leads by 4.8 points, 50.7%-45.9%, up from 4.1 points on Monday.

For more details, check out the IBD/TIPP 2020 Election Poll page.

2020 Presidential Poll: Party Breakdown

Biden has a 3-point lead among independent voters, 47%-44%, the Election Day IBD/TIPP presidential poll finds. In 2016, Trump narrowly carried independents, 43%-42%, according to a postelection Pew Research survey of verified voters.

Meanwhile, Biden appears to be having a slightly easier time than Trump in locking down support from his own party's voters. Biden leads 94%-5.5% among Democrats, while Trump leads 92%-6% among Republicans in the latest presidential poll.

2016 Voters In Trump Vs Biden Poll

Wayward 2016 Trump voters continue to be an issue for the president, the IBD/TIPP presidential poll shows. Among people who voted for Trump in 2016, 7.5% say they now support Biden, while 90% say they've decided to back Trump again. Biden does better among Hillary Clinton voters: 4% support Trump, while 95% back the former vice president.

In addition to faring better among 2016 Trump and Clinton voters, Biden leads among 2016 third-party voters (59%-15%) and nonvoters (66%-30%). Last election's nonvoters could play a big role in the outcome of the Trump vs. Biden race, early vote totals suggest.

Trump Vs Biden Poll: Suburbs Back Challenger

Urban voters prefer Biden by a 25-point margin, the 2020 IBD/TIPP presidential poll finds, while Trump has a wider 33-point advantage among rural voters.

Yet the biggest difference this year appears to be suburban voters, who make up close to half of the electorate. The IBD/TIPP presidential poll shows suburban voters back Biden vs. Trump by 57%-38%. Exit polls from 2016 show Trump won the suburbs, 50%-45%.

Presidential Poll Demographics

IBD/TIPP's latest Trump vs. Biden poll shows the Democrat leading among senior citizens, 51%-46%. Trump won handily among seniors in 2016, 53%-44%, Pew says.

Voters age 18-44 back the Democrat by 54%-42% in the final Trump vs. Biden poll. Voters age 45-64 back Trump, 51%-46%.

The IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll shows Trump winning among men by 54%-42%, a touch above his 11-point advantage in the 2016 election.

However, women favor the Democrat by a 58%-39% margin, wider than Trump's 15-point deficit among women in 2016, the IBD/TIPP presidential poll finds.

White voters favor Trump, 51%-45%, much narrower than the Republican's 15-point advantage in 2016.

Yet Trump appears to be faring better among black and Hispanic voters than in 2016, though the small sample sizes come with wide credibility intervals. The apparent narrowing of the gap among these voters in recent days also bucks the trend established in the first couple of weeks of IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden polls.

Data on the income, religion and education of voters in the Trump vs. Biden poll can be found at the main IBD/TIPP tracking poll page.

Biden Vs Trump Poll: Chance Of 2016 Surprise?

In 2016, almost all presidential polls pointed to a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump. The IBD/TIPP Poll was among very few polls that pointed to a Trump 2016 surprise. TIPP, IBD's polling partner, succeeded in picking up on the greater enthusiasm among Republicans for their candidate.

IBD/TIPP's latest Trump vs. Biden poll margin of +4 points for the Democrat again makes it an outlier. The RealClearPolitics average of 2020 presidential polls shows that Biden has a 6.7-point lead.

Trump's 46.2% support in the final IBD/TIPP presidential poll puts him a hair above his 46.1% vote total in 2016. However, Biden's 50.2% support builds upon Clinton's 48.2% vote share.

Yet given Biden's apparent improvement over Clinton's performance in red states like Texas and Georgia, if state polls are accurate, he may need a wider popular vote advantage to assure a victory.

TIPP President Raghavan Mayur cautions that Trump could lose the popular vote by more than his 2.1-point deficit in 2016, perhaps even by today's 4-point IBD/TIPP margin, and still have a chance to eke out a victory in the Electoral College.

"Trump must perform spectacularly in the battlegrounds for any hopes of retaining the presidency," Mayur said.

Trump voters again appear more enthused about their candidate, with 78% stating strong support to 66% of Biden backers, the IBD/TIPP presidential poll finds. Yet the latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll also finds important contrasts with the Trump vs. Clinton race. Chief among them is Biden's solid lead among suburban voters, who helped lift Trump to victory in 2016.

The final 2020 IBD/TIPP presidential poll shows that 45% of voters plan to cast their ballots on Election Day, including 57% of Trump supporters and 35% of Biden backers. The unprecedented level of mail-in voting, which brings the potential for disqualified ballots, is a wild card.

Despite the surge in early voting, the IBD/TIPP presidential poll suggests that 11% of likely voters could still change their minds.

Trump Vs Biden Poll: Who Is Investors' Choice?

So far, investors seem to have mostly ignored Trump's claims that Biden's economic policies will be disastrous, which he repeated in the final presidential debate. "If he gets in, you will have a Depression, the likes of which you've never seen. Your 401(k)s will go to hell, and it'll be a very, very sad day for this country."

Self-described investors, with at least $10,000 in household-owned stocks or mutual funds, back the president in today's Trump vs. Biden poll, 51%-46%. The final 2016 IBD/TIPP presidential poll showed Trump winning investors, 48%-42%.

Among noninvestors, Biden leads by 55%-41%, reflecting his advantage among modest-income voters.

Regardless of their own voting preferences, investors seem to have mostly come to terms with the possibility of a Biden presidency and potential Democratic sweep. That would likely mean higher corporate taxes and higher taxes on investment gains. Yet Wall Street firms seem to think that a Democratic boost in federal spending can offset any near-term downside from tax hikes and more regulation. The stock market rallied in early October but ended the month on a sour note amid surging coronavirus cases and a lapse in fiscal stimulus.

While the stock market rallied on Monday, IBD's current stock market trend assessment — market in correction — is a warning light for most new stock purchases. Keep tabs on each afternoon's The Big Picture column to find out when the green light returns. The Big Picture has a strong track record of helping investors avoid sharp selloffs. The column first flashed a warning light on Feb. 24, when the Dow Jones was at 27,961, then flashed a green light on April 2, with the Dow at 21,413.

Wall Street is hoping that an extended court fight over the election's outcome may be avoided. The 2000 recount coincided with a stock market pullback of nearly 10%, though that was during the 2000-2002 bear market.

IBD/TIPP 2020 Election Poll Details

The daily update of the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll reflects a survey of 1,316 registered and 1,212 likely voters, from Oct. 29 through Nov. 2. The weighted party split of likely voters includes 433 Democrats, 402 Republicans and 359 independents.

The Trump vs. Biden poll likely voter sample has a credibility interval of +/- 3.2 percentage points. IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica applies a multimodal approach using "traditional" telephone methodology, with live interviewers supplemented by online surveys. Each day approximately 200 interviews with registered voters are conducted, of which 125 are from telephone and 75 from online. In the telephone sample, roughly 65% of interviews come from a cellphone sample and 35% from a landline sample.


Please follow Jed Graham on Twitter @IBD_JGraham for coverage of economic policy and financial markets


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