President Trump's approval rating dropped two points to 36%, while support for his handling of the economy increased, and most approve of his handling of the North Korea situation, the latest IBD/TIPP Poll finds.
Trump suffered a big drop in approval among men, which fell to 39% in June from 49% in May. His support among white men fell to 47%, from May's 56%. However, he gained ground with women, among whom support climbed to 34% from last month's 29%.
Trump also lost support among independents (approval went from 34% last month to 29%). It dipped among Republicans, from 86% to 81%. Overall, 55% disapprove of the job Trump is doing.
Trump's net favorability remained unchanged at -17 (37% favorable, 54% unfavorable), the poll found.
"A number of factors are driving the president's low overall approval rating," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts the IBD/TIPP Poll. "Fears of a trade war, higher gas prices, a media that continues to feed the public with sensational and misleading news stories, all contribute. In addition, opposition to the government's crackdown on illegal immigration, in particular the separation of migrant families, may be driving Trump's approval number down."
IBD/TIPP conducted the poll from May 29 to June 5. It includes responses from 905 people, giving it a margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points.
The June IBD/TIPP Poll showed Democrats with a seven-point lead over Republicans (47% to 40%) among registered voters on the "generic ballot" question. This asks whether they'd prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats or Republicans.
The Democrats' lead in the IBD/TIPP measure is higher than the current Real Clear Politics average, which has them ahead by just 4.8 points, with five months to go until the November midterm elections.
Trump's approval in the IBD/TIPP also continues to trail other polls, which show Trump with an average approval of 43.5%.
Good Grades On Specifics
While Trump's overall approval numbers remain low, he's gaining ground on specific areas.
The poll found that 44% give Trump high marks for his handling of the economy, up from 42% in May. The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index ticked up in June to 53.9. This marks the 21st consecutive month this index has been in positive territory (anything above 50 signals optimism). That's the longest stretch the index has been above 50 since IBD started tracking it 17 years go.
And 44% approve of how he's handling the threat of terrorism.
Meanwhile, 52% of the public approves of Trump's handling of the situation with North Korea, including 54% of independents. However, the poll found that 51% say they're not confident that the U.S. will be able to negotiate an end to North Korea's nuclear weapons program in the near future. Forty six percent are confident such a deal will come about.
And 57% say the U.S. and its allies won't be able to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Just 31% say they will. In May, Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal, which he said was unenforceable. President Obama negotiated the agreement, which lifted sanctions on the promise that Iran would halt its nuclear program. But the deal was never ratified as a treaty by the Senate.
Other Poll Findings
- 47% say they are satisfied with the direction of the country, compared with 52% who aren't. That satisfied number is up a point from May and up four points from a year ago.
- Just 16% say the economy is currently in a recession, down from 20% in May.
- 56% say the economy is improving, up from 54% in May.
- The IBD/TIPP Financial Stress Index edged up to 51.1, after hitting an all-time low in May.
- The share of job sensitive households — those with one or more members who are unemployed or worried about getting laid off — climbed to 25% in June, from 23% in May. It is still below the 12-month average of 27%.
- Most of those following the story closely think the FBI's investigation of the Trump campaign in 2016 was not politically motivated (54%). But 78% of Republicans believe that it was. Among independents, 60% say the investigation was based on legitimate concerns about Russian collusion. Just 29% think it was politically motivated.
Methodology: IBD/TIPP conducted the June poll from May 29-June 5. It includes responses from 905 people nationwide, who were asked questions by live interviewers on phones. The poll's margin of error is +/-3.3 percentage points. (Toplines from the June IBD/TIPP Poll can be found here.)
The IBD/TIPP Poll has been credited as being the most accurate poll in the past four presidential elections, and was one of only two that correctly predicted the outcome of the November 2016 presidential election.
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